Profesores Escuela de Gobierno y Transformación Pública

Dr. Christian Ponce de León "Electoral  Cycles and Democratic Development"

 

Abstract:

 

Previous research establishes a price of democracy, whereby elections produce economic cycles.Yet little is known about how democratic development influences such cycles. This paper analyzes how elections affect economic output across different levels of democratic development. We begin by theorizing about how the level of democracy should influence the relationship between elections and the economy, and then test the predictions on two datasets that span three decades and 71 democracies. As predicted, we find that less consolidated democracies experience larger electoral cycles. This is the case for both reverse electoral investment cycles, in which private investment declines before an election, and opportunistic political business cycles, in which government and consumer spending increase during the election period. Additionally, democratic development affects the impact of the competitiveness of a race; in OECD countries, only close elections produce electoral cycles while in developing democracies even less competitive races have these effects.

 

Fecha: 6 de mayo de 2015

Lugar en vivo: Campus Santa Fe, Aulas 2, Aula Magna 2

Transmisión en Monterrey: Escuela de Gobierno y Transformación Pública, salón 305

Hora: 12:00-14:00

Público: Abierto